Objectives of the intervention
CAFI´s (Central African Forest Initiative) theory of change is to contribute to low emission development in partner countries through interventions in the land use and forestry sector because of the immense value forests represent for humans and the planet. To implement the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, to fight poverty and to fulfill the post 2020 biodiversity framework. This will be done through reduced deforestation and forest degradation. CAFI´s climate and development objectives are attained through the implementation of ambitious national investment frameworks that decouple development from deforestation. Such socioeconomic transformation will come from measures that properly address both direct drivers of deforestation (such as agriculture, wood energy, forestry and infrastructure/mining) and underlying drivers (such as lack of land use planning and insecure land tenure, poor governance and rapid population growth). Targets are reduction of annual rates of deforestation and degradation compared to reference scenario, e.g. Gabon: reductions of emissions from the LULUCF of 50% by 2025 (compared to 2005), DRC: provincial integrated programmes aim at a 10% reduction in emissions, RDC: objective to stabilize forest cover at 63.5%. The CAFI M&E framework is built on its Theory of Change, which seeks to achieve two main impacts:
1) emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhanced
removals
2) sustainable development co-benefits: biodiversity conservation, increased food security, increased tenure security, women´s empowerment, better business climate, increased revenues, increased fiscal revenues. through the following seven outcomes:
1. sustainable agricultural investments
2. sustainable wood energy investments
3. sustainable forest governance and investments, and enhanced permitting,
monitoring and enforcement capacity
4. sustainable siting and development of infrastructure and mining investment
5. optimal land use planning and land tenure
6. reduced demographic pressure on forests
7. Improved governance, inter-ministerial coordination and transparency
(including permitting and fiscal policies)
CAFI Terms of Reference and national investment frameworks are to provide full details on expected outputs as well as country specific theories of change.
At the outcome level, these outputs will ensure that:
Sustainable agricultural practices lead to less land conversion and increased food security
Sustainable alternatives to current wood energy practices are adopted
Forestry sector and protected areas institutions and stakeholders have the capacity and the legal framework to promote, monitor and enforce sustainable management of forests
Future infrastructure and mining projects minimize their overall footprint on forests
Land use planning decisions ensure a balanced representation of sectoral interests and keep forests standing, and better tenure security does not incentivize forest loss by individuals, communities or companies
Population growth and migration to forests and forest fronts are slowed down
Better inter ministerial coordination and governance resulting in a permitting, enforcement and fiscal regime of economic activities that do not push economic actors to forest conversion and illegal activities and a business climate favorable to forest friendly investments.
